Thursday, October 09, 2008

Visualizing the Long Tail for Tax Policy: Part 2


Above is a corresponding visualization of the Obama plan - but it's a little more complicated. Again, you can click to zoom in.

Obama's plan includes both tax cuts and tax increases. All of Obama's tax cuts go to the bottom 900 people (the poorest 90%). The total cuts for the bottom 90% is much larger than for McCain's plan, but it's also distributed quite differently, as the inset shows.

For the next 90 people (percentiles 90-99%) it's basically a wash - the bottom half of these will get a tax cut, but a very slight one, and the top half of those 90 will see an increase: in terms of field position, they'll take a penalty, and have to move back to the left. How far, you ask? On average across these 90 people, the penalty is about 6 inches each - not enough to see on the gridiron I drew.

For the next 9 people, in the 99-99.9% bracket, the average tax increase is big enough to be visible: about a 4 yards penalty. An offsides penalty, maybe. I drew the approximate shift of each of these 9 people on the graph, with dotted blue arrows pointing from the old to the new position.

For the last guy, the penalty is nearly 22 yards, moving him back to the 70 or 75. Maybe a holding call.

I didn't bother to draw the appropriate-size stack of bills for the tax increases- you'll just have to image it. I didn't draw field-position arrows for the McCain tax plan because nobody moves by more than a foot or so - except for the guy down by the 94-yard line, who just about makes it to the goal.

I should also probably point out (in case it's not obvious) that neither of these plans is likely to be implemented exactly in their proposed form - even if the economy and stock market hadn't implored the last couple of weeks, which has obviously changed things, there's a long process of digestion before any major legislation is produced by congress, and like digestion, what comes out is often quite dissimilar from what goes in. It's probably best to think of this as a statement of what values the candidates stand support, rather than a prediction of how your taxes will change.

So to summarize:
  • The Obama plan makes the spread between the highest-paid and lowest-paid Americans noticibly smaller. The McCain plan makes it slightly larger.
  • The bottom 50-60% of the country by income do much better under the Obama plan).
  • The tax plans are not very different for the 60-95% bracket, between about $70k and $170k per year.
  • The 95-99% bracket ($170-$240k) clearly does better under McCain - by a substantial amount in dollars each, but a small percentage (a little more than 2%, actually) in income.
  • The top 1%, and especially the top 0.1%, do much much better under McCain.
Go Steelers!

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

While I do fall in the top-1%, I do not think that under McCain I will end up better, despite the promised cuts.

If the bottom 90% cannot spend, then I doubt that the top-1% will see an increase of income (from firm profits, stocks, dividends, and so on).

Yes, the top-1% will pay less percentage-wise but it is highly likely that they will end up earning less...

Jerry said...

cheap wedding gowns,
discount bridal gowns,
China wedding dresses,
discount designer wedding dresses,
China wedding online store,
plus size wedding dresses,
cheap informal wedding dresses,
junior bridesmaid dresses,
cheap bridesmaid dresses,
maternity bridesmaid dresses,
discount flower girl gowns,
cheap prom dresses,
party dresses,
evening dresses,
mother of the bride dresses,
special occasion dresses,
cheap quinceanera dresses,
hot red wedding dresses

asdfsadf said...

nike shoes, jordan shoes, nike dunks, nike air force 1, nike shox, nike shoes, nike shox, nike dunks, nike air force 1, nike shox, nike shoes, nike shox oz, nike shox nz, nike shox r3, nike shox r4, nike shox r5, nike shox tl
nike air force 1










nike Air Force 1, nike shoes, Jordan shoes, nike sb dunks, cheap nike Air Force 1, cheap nike shoes, cheap Jordan shoes, cheap nike sb dunks, discount nike Air Force 1, discount nike shoes, discount Jordan shoes, discount nike sb dunks, nike shoes, nike shox, nike dunks, nike air force 1, jordan shoes, nike shoes, nike shox, nike dunks, nike air force 1, jordan shoes












nike shoes, nike shox, jordan shoes, puma shoes, nike dunks, nike air max, nike air force one, timberland boots, ugg boots, nike shoes, nike shox, nike air force 1, nike sb dunks, puma shoes, nike air max, jordan shoes, ugg boot, jordan sneakers, timberland shoes, bape shoes, nike shoes, nike shox, nike dunks, nike air force 1, jordan shoes

传斌 said...

replica Watches
replica Watches
replica Watches
fake Watches
knockoff Watches
replica Rolex Watches
replica Breitling Watches
replica Cartier Watches
replica Omega Watches
replica Tag Heuer Watches
replica Bell & Ross Watches
replica Panerai Watches
replica IWC Watches
replica Patek Philippe Watches
replica Chopard Watches
replica Gucci Watches
replica Corum Watches
replica Montblanc Watches
replica Jacob & Co Watches
replica A.Dunhill Watches
replica A.Lange & Sohne Watches
replica Alain Silberstein Watches
replica Audemars Piguet Watches
replica B.R.M Watches
replica Baume & Mercier Watches
replica Blancpain Watches
replica BMW Watches
replica Breguet Watches
replica Burberry Watches
replica Bvlgari Watches
replica Chronoswiss Watches
replica Concord Watches
replica D&G Watches
replica De Witt Watches
replica Dior Watches

Anonymous said...

Replica Handbags
Fake Handbags
Knockoff Handbags

Replica Louis Vuitton Handbags
Replica Gucci Handbags
Replica Chanel Handbags
Prada Handbags
Replica Fendi Handbags
Replica Dolce Gabbana Handbags
Replica Chloe Handbags
Replica Jimmy Choo Handbags
Replica Thomas Wylde Handbags
Replica MiuMiu Handbags

Replica Balenciaga Handbags
Replica Coach Handbags
Replica Lancel Handbags
Replica Hermes Handbags
Replica Marc Jacobs Handbags
Replica Anya Hindmarch Handbags
Replica YSL Handbags
Replica Mulberry Handbags
Replica Givenchy Handbags
Replica Valentino Handbags
Replica Versace Handbags
Replica Cartier Handbags
Replica Marni Handbags
Replica Bottega Veneta Handbags
Replica Loewe Handbags
Replica Kooba Handbags

Replica Bally Handbags
Replica Burberry Handbags
Replica Christian Dior Handbags
Replica Juicy Couture Handbags
Replica Ferragamo Handbags
Replica Celine Handbags

season said...

Once upon a time, there was a mouse father.He wanted to marry his daughter to the greatest person in the world.But, who was the greatest person in the world?Oh!
puma ferrari shoes
cheap nike shoesThe sun! He must be the greatest person in the world.The mouse father went to talk to the sun."Hello! Mr. Sun.
puma shoes
ferrari shoes
I know you are the greatest person in the world.Would you marry my daughter?""What? I'm not the greatest person in the world. The greatest person is the cloud.If he comes out, I’ll be covered."
nike shox nz
Ugg Boots
The mouse father went to talk to the cloud. “Hello! Mr. Cloud. I know you are the greatest person in the world. Would you marry my daughter?”
nike 360 air max
nike shox shoes
“What? I’m not the greatest person in the world. The greatest person is the wind.If he comes out, I’ll be blown away.”
cheap puma shoes
puma drift cat
The mouse father went to talk to the wind. “Hello! Mr. Wind. I know you are the greatest person in the world.Would you marry my daughter?” “What? I’m not the greatest person in the world. The greatest person is the wall. If he comes out, I’ll be stopped.”
cheap nike shox
nike air max 360
The mouse father went to talk to the wall. “Hello! Mr. Wall. I know you are the greatest person in the world. Would you marry my daughter?” “What? I’m not the greatest person in the world. The greatest person is YOU, the mouse.” “The greatest person in the world is … mouse?” “Yes, the greatest person in the world is mouse. See? If mouse comes out, I’ll be bit!”
nike air max
pumas shoes
The mouse father was very happy. He finally knew mouse was the greatest person in the world. He would marry his daughter to the handsome mouse next door.
cheap jeans
cheap levis jeans
ed hardy jeans